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Compiled by Rosemary Wambui
Source, Kulea
This combination of trends highlights a region balancing between localised demand strength and broader market adjustments.
Import Parity Dynamics
Import parity trends revealed selective improvements and emerging pressures:
- COMESA FTA (Mombasa): Improved from +51 to +58 USD/MT (▲ Appreciated)
- COMESA Non-FTA (Mombasa): Improved from –14 to –7 USD/MT (▲ Appreciated)
- EAC (Nairobi): Declined from +38 to +18 USD/MT (▼ Depreciated)
- World Market (Mombasa): Weakened from –331 to –335 USD/MT (▼ Depreciated)
The gains in COMESA parity indicate improving regional trade competitiveness, particularly for imports through Mombasa. However, weakening EAC and global parity signals continued pressure from broader market forces, limiting overall advantage.
Regional Trade Flows
Port activity remained robust, with multiple vessels loading refined sugar from Kandla, India destined for Somalia (Kismayu, Bossaso, and Berbera). Notable shipments include:
- Queen Ghaidaa: 30,000 MT
- Neptune J: 17,000 MT
- Additional vessels ranging between 2,200 MT and 10,400 MT
This sustained inflow underscores continued supply movement into the Horn of Africa, supporting the region’s stable pricing environment.
Market Outlook
The Week 12 outlook points to a partially improving trade position, driven by gains in COMESA competitiveness. However, this progress is tempered by:
- Weakening EAC parity
- Continued negative global market positioning
- Declining prices in Southern Africa
Overall, the market reflects early signs of recovery in specific segments, but remains exposed to external pressures.
Conclusion
The regional sugar market remains in a state of balance with mixed signals. While Kenya’s coastal market strengthened and COMESA trade conditions improved, inland price declines and global pressures highlight ongoing challenges.Stakeholders should closely monitor global market trends and regional parity shifts, as these will determine whether current improvements can be sustained in the coming weeks.