The Agriculture and Food Authority – Sugar Directorate’s September 2024 newsletter offers a comprehensive analysis of the sugar industry’s performance from January to September, focusing on local production, pricing trends, trade statistics, and the global market outlook. Here’s an in-depth summary of the report:
1. Local Sugar Market
Production and Sales
- Sugarcane Milled: Total sugarcane milled in September 2024 decreased slightly by 0.4% to 796,851 metric tons, down from 800,286 metric tons in August.
- Sugar Production: Despite the slight decrease in milling, sugar production saw a small increase, reaching 73,634 metric tons in September, up from 73,409 metric tons in August 2024.
- Bagged Sugar: Bagged sugar production rose by 1% in September 2024 to 73,818 metric tons, compared to 73,386 metric tons in August.
- Cane-to-Sugar Ratio (TC/TS): The industry’s cane-to-sugar ratio improved slightly to 10.82 in September from 10.9 in August 2024, indicating a slight efficiency gain.
- Year-to-Date Production: Total sugar production from January to September 2024 was 615,499 metric tons, marking a 65% increase from 374,119 metric tons produced during the same period in 2023.
- Sugar Sales: Sugar sales declined by 9% in September, totaling 76,688 metric tons compared to 84,037 metric tons in August.
- Closing Stocks: Closing stock of sugar held by all factories at the end of September was 21,255 metric tons, down from 24,376 metric tons in August.
Pricing Trends
- Ex-Factory Prices: The weighted ex-factory sugar price dropped to Ksh 5,059 per 50 kg bag in September, down from Ksh 5,075 in August and Ksh 5,325 in July 2024.
- Wholesale Prices: Wholesale sugar prices averaged Ksh 5,367 per 50 kg bag in September, a 1% decrease from Ksh 5,424 in August 2024.
- Retail Prices: Retail sugar prices also saw a decline, averaging Ksh 136 per kilo in September, down from Ksh 141 in August.
2. Foreign Trade
Sugar Imports
- Total Imports: Sugar imports in September totaled 35,426 metric tons, an increase from the 18,733 metric tons imported in August 2024.
- Breakdown of Imports: This total includes 7,491 metric tons of Mill White/Brown sugar and 27,935 metric tons of White Refined sugar.
3. By-Products
- Molasses Production: Molasses production dropped by 4% in September to 31,641 metric tons, down from 33,089 metric tons in August 2024.
- Molasses Prices: Molasses prices ranged between Ksh 4,800 and Ksh 7,500 per tonne in September, with an average price of Ksh 5,415 per tonne, slightly higher than the Ksh 5,324 per tonne in August.
4. Raw Material Costs
Sugarcane Prices
- Sugarcane Pricing: The price for sugarcane remained steady at Ksh 5,000 per tonne in September, unchanged since the last revision on August 22, 2024. This price is determined by the Sugarcane Pricing Committee, following the established sugarcane payment formula.
5. Global Sugar Market
CIF Values
- CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) Prices: In September 2024, the CIF Mombasa landed values for imported White Refined Sugar averaged Ksh 88,570 per tonne, while Mill White/Brown sugar averaged Ksh 82,561 per tonne, reflecting variations in international sugar prices.
The September 2024 newsletter highlights ongoing adjustments in the sugar industry, with slight declines in local production and sales, but a significant year-over-year increase in total production for January to September 2024. Despite decreases in ex-factory, wholesale, and retail prices, the industry showed stability in cane-to-sugar conversion ratios and the cost of sugarcane. The substantial rise in imports, especially of White Refined sugar, emphasizes shifting supply dynamics amid changes in global market prices.