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Compiled by Rosemary Wambui
Source, Kulea
The sugar market for the week of 16th to 22nd March 2026 presented a stable pricing environment across most regional markets, but underlying trade conditions weakened significantly, driven by declining import competitiveness across both regional and global benchmarks.
Kenya Market Performance
In Kenya, Very High Polarisation (VHP) sugar prices recorded slight declines:
- Nairobi: Dropped from USD 1,000/MT to USD 993/MT (▼ –0.7%)
- Mombasa: Declined from USD 985/MT to USD 977/MT (▼ –0.8%)
These marginal reductions suggest minor easing in domestic pricing, though not substantial enough to signal a shift in overall market structure.
Regional Price Stability
Across the wider region, prices remained largely unchanged:
East Africa
- Kigali: USD 818/MT (● Stable)
- Dar es Salaam: USD 904/MT (● Stable)
- Kampala: USD 771/MT (● Stable)
Southern Africa
- Durban: USD 892/MT (● Stable)
- Johannesburg: USD 895/MT (● Stable)
- Cape Town: USD 880/MT (● Stable)
Horn of Africa
- Mogadishu (LQW): USD 670/MT
- Mogadishu (VHP): USD 540/MT
- Juba: USD 750/MT
- Bukavu: USD 720/MT
This broad stability indicates a balanced supply-demand environment, with no major shocks affecting regional price levels during the week.
Import Parity Deterioration
Despite stable prices, import parity indicators weakened across all major corridors, signalling growing pressure on trade economics:
- COMESA FTA (Mombasa): Declined from +58 to +51 USD/MT
- COMESA Non-FTA (Mombasa): Dropped from –7 to –14 USD/MT
- EAC (Nairobi): Fell sharply from +97 to +38 USD/MT
- World Market (Mombasa): Worsened from –275 to –331 USD/MT
The sharp decline in EAC parity is particularly notable, indicating a significant loss in regional trade advantage, while the continued deterioration in global parity reflects increasing cost pressure from international markets.
Regional Trade Activity
Port activity remained active, with several vessels transporting refined sugar from India (Kandla and Kakinada ports) to Somalia’s key entry points (Bossaso, Kismayu, and Berbera).
Major shipments included:
- Queen Ghaidaa: 30,000 MT
- Neptune J: 17,000 MT
- Haj Ali: 10,000 MT
These movements highlight continued supply flows into the Horn of Africa, helping maintain price stability in that sub-region.
Market Outlook
The Week 11 outlook reflects a disconnect between stable prices and weakening trade fundamentals. While regional markets appear calm, the deterioration in import parity suggests:
- Rising landed costs for sugar imports
- Reduced competitiveness in regional trade corridors
- Increased exposure to global market pressures
Conclusion
Although prices remained steady across most markets, the broader trade environment weakened during the week. The decline in both regional and global parity indicators signals a less favourable position for importers, with cost pressures likely to persist.
Stakeholders should remain cautious, as continued parity deterioration could eventually translate into upward pressure on domestic prices in the weeks ahead.