By Francis Songok
In Kenya, sugar is more than just the white or brown crystalline substance we stir into our favourite tea. For more than 300,000 smallholder farmers, it is a way of life. While the sugar sector often makes headlines for issues like recent mill privatisations, cane shortages, and government bailouts, a far more existential threat looms on the horizon: climate change. The very crop that sustains an entire regional economy in Western and coastal Kenya is facing an increasingly bleak and unpredictable future.
Sugarcane is a water-intensive crop. It thrives best in regions with consistent rainfall of 1,100–2,500 mm annually, warm temperatures, and well-drained, fertile soils. Counties like Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, parts of Nyanza, and the Rift Valley have long provided the ideal environment for cane farming. But today, farmers in these areas will tell you that the rains no longer come as they used to. Sometimes, droughts are prolonged; when the skies finally open, heavy downpours result in flooding. It is harder than ever to predict the seasons—and that is bad news for agriculture.
Data from the Kenya Meteorological Department indicates a steady decline in rainfall across sugarcane-growing zones—by close to 10–15% over recent years. Worse still, rising average temperatures are stressing the crop, leading to faster pest and disease spread, increased production costs, and lower cane quality.
The government has been at the forefront of sugar industry revitalisation programmes. The Sugar Act 2024 breathed life into an otherwise struggling sector. These turnaround programmes have made a real impact, but while these reforms roll out towards a sustainable future, the climate continues to change—and our current way of growing sugarcane may soon be unsustainable.
We cannot afford to ignore the fact that climate change is already here and actively reshaping how we grow sugarcane. To save the industry and the thousands of livelihoods it supports, we must act now. Among the urgent measures required are:
1. Investing in Climate-Smart Sugarcane and Agricultural Practices
Institutions such as KESRETI—a newly established body focused on advancing research, innovation, and technology transfer within the Kenyan sugar industry—must take the lead in breeding drought-tolerant, pest-resistant cane varieties that mature faster and require less water. Furthermore, partnerships between national and county governments should focus on proactive extension services, including training on soil conservation, mulching, and intercropping to build resilience at the farm level.
2. Expanding Irrigation
Simple, solar-powered irrigation systems and other affordable technologies should be promoted to help farmers cope with prolonged dry spells. These systems will minimise crop losses, ensure a steady supply of cane for milling, and support overall industry sustainability.
3. Embedding Climate Adaptation into Sugar Industry Policies
Industry players must widen their scope beyond current revival measures. Looking ahead, it is imperative to include climate adaptation chapters in policies and industry guidelines, with incentives for eco-friendly cane production, water conservation, and climate risk insurance for farmers.
4. Supporting Crop Diversification
To maintain steady incomes, farmers need support beyond sugarcane. For example, in Busia, watermelon farming has become popular and offers income within just three months as farmers wait for cane to mature. Such diversification ensures better land use and long-term sustainability for cane farming households.
Climate change is not a distant threat—it is already affecting cane in the fields and the lives it supports, from farmers to mill workers, rural communities, and the national economy. This new reality is rewriting the rules of agriculture in real time. We cannot assume that sugarcane will continue to thrive as it always has.
Kenyan sugarcane farmers are resilient and have weathered many storms in the past, but they cannot be left to fight climate change alone. Government departments, research institutions, the private sector and all stakeholders in the industry must rally and mobilise resources to address climate change before the fields run dry and the last harvest is behind us.