The Agriculture and Food Authority – Sugar Directorate’s October 2024 newsletter provides a detailed analysis of the sugar industry's performance from January to October 2024, covering local market trends, foreign trade, and the global sugar market. Below is a summarized report:
1. Local Sugar Market
Production and Sales
- Sugarcane Milled: A marginal increase of 1% to 807,874 metric tons in October 2024, up from 800,051 metric tons in September.
- Sugar Production:
- Made: Sugar production slightly decreased by 0.4% to 73,350 metric tons, compared to 73,634 metric tons in September.
- Bagged: Bagged sugar production dropped by 1% to 72,908 metric tons in October, down from 73,818 metric tons in September.
- Year-to-Date Production: January-October 2024 saw a 73% increase in total sugar production, reaching 688,406 metric tons, compared to 398,716 metric tons in the same period in 2023.
- Sugar Sales: Increased by 6% in October to 81,542 metric tons, up from 76,688 metric tons in September 2024.
- Closing Stocks: Dropped sharply by 39% to 12,965 metric tons at the end of October, down from 21,255 metric tons in September.
Pricing Trends
- Ex-Factory Prices: Increased by 7% to Ksh 5,430 per 50kg bag in October from Ksh 5,059 in September.
- Wholesale Prices: Jumped by 16% to Ksh 6,230 per 50kg bag, compared to Ksh 5,375 in September.
- Retail Prices: Averaged Ksh 138 per kilo in October, up slightly from Ksh 136 in September.
2. By-Products
- Molasses Production: Increased by 3% to 32,565 metric tons in October, up from 31,641 metric tons in September.
- Molasses Prices: Ranged between Ksh 4,750 and Ksh 8,000 per tonne, with an average price of Ksh 5,559 per tonne in October, higher than the Ksh 5,415 per tonne in September.
- Sugarcane Prices: Remained stable at Ksh 5,000 per tonne since the last revision on August 22, 2024, adhering to the Sugarcane Pricing Committee’s guidelines.
3. Foreign Trade
Sugar Imports
- Total Imports: Dropped significantly by 58% to 14,775 metric tons in October, compared to 35,426 metric tons in September.
- Breakdown of Imports:
- Mill White/Brown Sugar: 4,671 metric tons.
- White Refined Sugar: 10,104 metric tons.
CIF Values
- While CIF prices for October were not explicitly mentioned, they remain key in assessing the costs associated with imports, influenced by global market trends.
4. Global Sugar Market Outlook
The report hints at increasing domestic sugar prices (ex-factory, wholesale, and retail) as global trends impact local markets. A sharp decline in imports suggests efforts to prioritize local production, though this may strain supply as stocks deplete.
October 2024 saw stable sugarcane prices, an uptick in ex-factory and wholesale prices, and a slight rise in retail prices. While production showed minor fluctuations, year-to-date gains were impressive. Reduced imports and declining stocks may challenge market stability, necessitating measures to ensure steady supply. The industry also benefited from improved molasses production and pricing.
Compiled by John Kyule of The Kenya Sugar Board