Weekly Market Outlook 28th October - 3rd November 2024

Weekly Market Outlook 28th October - 3rd November 2024

The East African sugar market has seen notable price fluctuations recently, particularly in Kenya. After steady price increases, Nairobi and Mombasa experienced slight declines in brown sugar prices, with Nairobi’s price down by USD 6.9 and Mombasa’s by USD 8. This shift hints at an easing of local supply pressures. In contrast, Dar es Salaam maintained stability at USD 796, reflecting balanced demand and supply. Uganda, however, faced an uptick in prices by USD 10, possibly due to supply challenges.

Import Parities
Recent trends in import parities across the region show potential advantages for speculative traders:

  • COMESA FTA: Positive import parity of USD +60, signaling that COMESA FTA imports are now above the break-even landing cost.
  • COMESA Non-FTA: Positive import parity of USD +39, also indicating favorable conditions for importers.
  • EAC Market: Improved to USD -19 from a prior -41, showing steady enhancement in parity levels.

These improvements suggest that COMESA imports, in particular, may offer some supply relief for Kenyan markets.

Port Line-Ups
The weekly port line-up for the East African Community (EAC) region includes the following vessels:

  • Atlas: Moored at Yanbu al-Bahr, Saudi Arabia, headed to Dar es Salaam with 7,500 MT of refined sugar.
  • Deniz ID: En route to Berbera, Somalia, carrying 27,000 MT of refined sugar.
  • Prince Khaled: En route from Kandla, India, to Berbera, Somalia, with 7,000 MT of refined sugar.
  • Golden ID: Moored at Kandla, India, bound for Berbera, Somalia, with 27,400 MT of an unspecified sugar type.


The East African sugar market continues to exhibit volatility. The slight decrease in Kenyan brown sugar prices may represent a temporary stabilization amidst broader fluctuations. Improved import parities, particularly for COMESA, indicate potential relief for supply pressures. However, ongoing stock level challenges across the region suggest that price volatility will likely persist.

Source: Kulea

Compiled by: Victor Agut of AFA - Sugar Directorate

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